RYA:EURONEXT DUBLINRyanair Holdings PLC Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-29 - not real-time
$60.86
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Ryanair trades at a forward PE of ~12x, well below the airline industry average of ~30x, and the DCF model suggests a fair value of roughly €101, implying a ~22% upside from the current €60.86 price. The stock also offers a modest 1.6% dividend yield with a low 20% payout ratio, reinforcing its attractiveness on a value basis.
On the technical side the MACD histogram is positive and the MACD line sits above its signal, signaling short‑term bullish momentum, while the RSI at 58 indicates the shares are not yet overbought. The price is trading just below the 200‑day SMA (63.2) but above the 20‑ and 50‑day SMAs, and sits near the identified resistance of €62.15 with support at €53.14. Volatility remains elevated (~48% 30‑day) and beta is above 1, suggesting price swings, yet the overall market sentiment is in “Extreme Greed” territory (FGI 93.6), which may fuel further buying pressure.
On the technical side the MACD histogram is positive and the MACD line sits above its signal, signaling short‑term bullish momentum, while the RSI at 58 indicates the shares are not yet overbought. The price is trading just below the 200‑day SMA (63.2) but above the 20‑ and 50‑day SMAs, and sits near the identified resistance of €62.15 with support at €53.14. Volatility remains elevated (~48% 30‑day) and beta is above 1, suggesting price swings, yet the overall market sentiment is in “Extreme Greed” territory (FGI 93.6), which may fuel further buying pressure.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD histogram but price still below 200‑day SMA
- High short‑term volatility and proximity to resistance
- Strong dividend yield with low payout ratio
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued valuation metrics (PE vs industry, DCF upside)
- Consistent revenue growth (~9% YoY) and positive operating cash flow
- Favorable market sentiment (Extreme Greed) supporting price appreciation
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend policy and low leverage (debt‑to‑equity ~15)
- Strategic positioning in European low‑cost market with ancillary revenue streams
- Long‑term upside potential indicated by fair‑value gap and stable cash generation
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth9.40%
Profit Margin13.98%
P/E Ratio12.8
ROE25.37%
ROA8.25%
Debt/Equity14.77
P/B Ratio6.3
Op. Cash Flow$3.7B
Free Cash Flow$-1052300032
Industry P/E29.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI58.5
Support$53.14
Resistance$62.15
MA 20$57.11
MA 50$58.30
MA 200$63.24
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index93.59
Valuation
Fair Value$101.50
Target Price$74.50
Upside/Downside22.41%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.61%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.24
Volatility48.06%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.